China’s exports jumped by 12.4% in March, hitting a five-month high as manufacturers raced to ship goods ahead of the latest round of US tariffs.
The surge far exceeded economists’ expectations of 4.4% growth and marked a sharp turnaround from the 3% fall recorded in February.
The rise was attributed in part to the timing of the lunar new year, which fell in early February this year.
Factories ramped up production once the holiday ended, flooding ports with shipments before tariffs took hold.
However, economists cautioned that this boost would likely prove temporary, as US-China trade tensions continue to escalate.
“Export growth accelerated in March, as manufacturers rushed to ship goods to the US ahead of ‘Liberation Day’,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics.
But shipments are set to drop back over the coming months and quarters. We think it could be years before Chinese exports regain current levels.
G7 and emerging markets drive export rebound
By destination, China’s export gains were widespread. Exports to the United States rose 9.1% year-on-year in March, a sharp reversal from the 9.8% decline in February.
Shipments to the United Kingdom jumped by 16.3%, following a 13.9% drop the previous month. Exports to the European Union also recovered, up 10.3% after falling 11.5% in February.
Emerging markets provided further momentum. Exports to Africa soared by 37%, while shipments to ASEAN countries climbed 11.6%.
Unlike other regions, ASEAN-bound exports had not dipped during the holiday period, providing a steady flow of trade.
Yet the rebound faces growing headwinds as the US administration prepares to tighten its grip on Chinese imports.
The White House recently clarified that exemptions on certain electronics products would be short-lived, with new tariffs on semiconductors and consumer electronics expected soon.
Temporary tariff relief offers little comfort
Kelvin Lam, senior China+ economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, noted that a brief reprieve on electronics tariffs, announced late Friday, might give Chinese exporters some breathing room.
However, he warned that the relief was only temporary and limited in scope.
“The temporary relief for the electronics sector may offer some breathing room for Chinese exporters before the new tariffs come into effect. We expect more clarity on the new tariff rates once the Section 232 Investigation concludes — with a likely range of 10% to 125%, according to US Commerce Secretary,” he said.
The existing 20% tariff linked to China’s role in the fentanyl trade remains in place.
The US and China have slapped punishingly high tariffs on each other’s imports, escalating their trade conflict.
While Donald Trump announced a 90-day suspension of several planned global tariffs, he simultaneously hiked duties on Chinese goods to 145%.
Beijing hit back, raising its own tariffs on US imports to 125% on Friday in response to Washington’s latest moves.
Later that day, the White House said it would temporarily exempt certain electronics from the harsh reciprocal tariffs on China.
However, US officials made clear over the weekend that the reprieve would be short-lived. Trump himself warned that no one was “getting off the hook.”
“There was no Tariff ‘exception,’” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform on Sunday. “These products are subject to the existing 20% Fentanyl Tariffs, and they’re just moving to a different Tariff ‘bucket.’”
Trump also pledged to launch a national security investigation into the semiconductor industry and the broader electronics supply chain.
“We will not be held hostage by other countries, especially hostile trading nations like China,” he declared.
Xi Jinping seeks Southeast Asia lifeline
Amid the rising tariff pressure, Chinese president Xi Jinping is turning to Southeast Asia to shore up trade ties.
Kicking off a three-nation trip in Vietnam’s capital, Hanoi, Xi called for deeper cooperation on supply chains, technology, and green economy initiatives.
In an article published in Vietnam’s Communist Party newspaper Nhandan ahead of his visit on Monday, Xi wrote: “The two sides should strengthen cooperation in production and supply chains.”
Vietnam, facing the prospect of a 46% US tariff hike in July once a global moratorium expires, has been eager to solidify its role as a regional manufacturing hub.
Xi’s push for closer ties with Hanoi highlights Beijing’s urgency to diversify its trade routes and reduce reliance on the increasingly hostile US market.
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